2024 Women's Ironman World Championship: Race Preview, Predictions, and a Deep Dive Into the Numbers

On September 22, 2024, 1,500 women will descend on the sun-soaked Côte d’Azur to compete in the 2024 Women’s Ironman World Championship in Nice. Not only will this be the first all-female Ironman event, but it also promises to be a race packed with fierce competition, stunning scenery, and a few records ready to be shattered.

This event has everything from the pros vying for the top spot to the gritty age-groupers tackling one of the most challenging courses on the Ironman circuit. Let’s dive into the key stats, predictions, and historical tidbits that make this year’s championship race one to watch.

Race Day Forecast in Nice

The weather is shaping up to be nearly perfect for an Ironman:

• Temperature: 23°C high, 16°C low—ideal for endurance racing
• Rainfall: None expected
• Wind: 16-24 km/h, just enough to make the bike leg interesting
• Sunrise: 7:19 a.m. | Sunset: 7:30 p.m.

With the Mediterranean waters a pleasant 22°C, the pros will have a smooth start, followed by a bike course that features 2,400 meters of climbing (ouch!). Let’s not forget the challenging Col de l’Ecre, 12km that could make or break a competitor’s day. The run offers some relief with a relatively flat, four-lap course, but the Côte d’Azur’s late afternoon sun could still test the runners.

The Course Breakdown

• Swim: 2.4 miles in the Mediterranean Sea
• Bike: 112 miles, featuring 2,400 meters of elevation gain
• Run: 26.2 miles, divided into four laps along the coast

Col de l’Ecre will be the actual test on the bike. With its 12 km ascent at a 5% grade, peaking at 7% in the final 7km stretch, riders will need to conserve energy for the punishing hills, making this leg one of the toughest in Ironman.

Key Race Stats and Prize Breakdown

• Total Prize Purse: $375,000, with $125,000 awarded to the first-place finisher
• Pro Women Start Time: 7:15 a.m.
• Cutoff times:
  • Swim: 2 hours, 20 minutes
  • Bike: 10 hours, 50 minutes
  • Total race time: 17 hours

Historical Highlights

Nice isn’t just another race destination; it’s where the European triathlon was born. The first Triathlon International de Nice took place in 1982, bringing triathlon fever to Europe. Since then, the city has hosted multiple world championship races, including the Ironman 70.3 World Championships in 2019.

The current course record holder in Nice is Paula Newby-Fraser, an 8-time Ironman World Champion who has won four times in the Triathlon International de Nice.

My Race Predictions

One of the most memorable triathlon battles—IronWar between Dave Scott and Mark Allen in 1989—still echoes in the halls of triathlon history.

Mark Allen, often called the “Grip” for his dominating performance in the sport, competed in 10 Nice Triathlons, winning all 10 between 1982 and 1993. Dave Scott, though primarily known for his six Ironman World Championship victories, faced off against Allen in Nice but could not break Allen’s winning streak in the French Riviera. Which always made me think that the strongest riders would win in Nice, and the strongest runners would win in Kona. Lucy proved me wrong last year.

Based on rankings from Triathlete.com and careful analysis of the athletes’ performances this season, I’m focusing on the favourites to take the podium. While wildcards always make things interesting, I don’t expect them to upset the big names in Nice this year.

1st Place: Laura Philipp

Laura Philipp is my pick to take the crown. She may not have the fastest swim, but her strength on the bike and run makes her a serious contender. On a course that demands climbing prowess and endurance, Laura’s ability to handle elevation will give her the edge to claim victory.

2nd Place: Kat Matthews

Kat Matthews is another all-around athlete who shines on the bike and run. Her ability to grind through the tough bike course will keep her in contention, and if she can maintain her momentum on the run, she could very well push Laura for the win.

3rd Place: Lucy Charles-Barclay

Lucy Charles-Barclay is a swimming powerhouse who won at Ironman France this year. However, I see her being edged out by Laura and Kat, particularly on the run. While Lucy’s swim and bike skills are unmatched, she’ll likely finish just behind the top two.

*** Edited ***

Lucy Charles pulled out at the last minute due to a grade 1c muscle strain. So, India Lee, one of the wildcards, is my favourite to take third place. She’s only done two full distances so far, but her swimming and riding strength should keep her ahead of the pack. 

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Notable Athletes to Watch

• Anne Haug – Known for her dominant run, Anne could close any gaps left after the swim and bike. If Lucy or Kat falter, expect Anne to push for the podium.
• Chelsea Sodaro – As a former Ironman World Champion, Chelsea can never be counted out. However, I believe she’ll face stiff competition from the other top athletes.

Fascinating Race Facts for 2024

• 1,533 age-group slots were allocated for this championship at races worldwide between August 2023 and August 2024.
• 72-year-old Missy Lestrange is the oldest competitor in the field, while 19-year-old Adrienne Bunn is the youngest.
• Special recognition goes to Carla Simon, a 36-year-old athlete with autism who is competing in the Physically Challenged (PC)/Intellectual Disability (ID) Open Division. Her journey is an inspiring reminder that this sport is about more than winning.

Where to Watch

If you want to follow the action live, you can watch the 2024 Women’s Ironman World Championship on Outside TV. The event will be streamed on their platform, giving you front-row access to the highs, lows, and all-out grit of these incredible athletes. Tune in here: Watch live on Outside TV.

Final Thoughts

The 2024 Women’s Ironman World Championship will be an event for the ages. Between the tough course, top-tier athletes, and historic setting, this race has all the ingredients for a spectacular showdown. Will Lucy Charles-Barclay defend her title, or will Laura Philipp or Kat Matthews take the top spot?

Whatever the outcome, one thing is sure: the Côte d’Azur will once again prove itself as a legendary stage for Ironman glory.

Who’s your pick to win? Let’s discuss this in the comments below!